The Outlook for UK House Prices

How will house prices behave going forward?

 

As long as I can remember (which is a few cycles...), UK house prices have gone up as the economy has grown, and fallen in recessions. I don't see why that would suddenly change.

 

To get a feel for where UK house prices are going next, ask yourself if the economy will chug along happily, or if GDP will dive. Right there is your answer.  Or at least, that is what history tells us. 

 

As long as fundamentals remain: a growing population, constrained space, and a free market (without too much intervention from government) the economy will support UK house prices.  

 

And when the economy dips (which it will at some point), the housing market will dip too.  When the economy recovers (which it always does), the housing market will resume 'business as usual'. 

 

So track the leading indicators: GDP, the economic cycle, population growth. Plus political will. All the rest is noise.

 

Newspapers (and some economists who should know better) love extreme stories suggesting UK house prices are about to leap sky high, or to tank. I like to think of these stores like the long term weather forecasts in tabloid newspapers (predicting Saharan or Arctic weather).


Note: this blog is not intended to be investment advice.  It is meant to spark thought for investors.  One of the many inputs into the decisions they make.